Tarr's Blog

I think a decent working definition of a "50/50 ball" would be, "a throw that is too high to be caught towards the end of its flight, and takes long enough to descend to catchable height that at least one player from each team could easily reach the disc and catch it if there was no opponent contesting the catch." That's terribly wordy, but I think it's a decent working definition.

My point is just that a 50/50 throw is not truly 50/50, even if the players are equally good at reading and going up for the disc. Each side has a major advantage, at least in theory.

The defense has the advantage that if nobody catches it, they win. This means they can just swipe at the disc, which means that the defender effectively has a few more inches of reach. This also becomes a decisive advantage on a crappy throw or a throw that is wobbling in the wind, as nobody has a good look at catching those.

The offense has two advantages - one technical and one more subtle but much more important. The technical advantage is that if both players catch the disc at the same time, offense retains possession. The chance of this really happening is pretty close to zero, but it makes for a good argument in favor of keeping the disc when both players get a grip on it.

The other, much more significant advantage is that presumably the offensive player was at least somewhat open when the disc was thrown. Yes, this isn't always true, but it usually is. And even if all spatial separation is erased by the time the disc arrives, the offensive player still has the chance to get to the spot first. This means that, if you can read the disc, you can get the right spot. Having good position is far more important than the extra few inches being the defender gives you.

I know people aren't trying to say that a 50/50 throw is exactly 50/50, but it's useful to recognize the factors that go into it, other than the relative abilities of the intended receiver and the defender.